With the proliferation of drones has come a whole new class of security threats to both civilian and military systems. In response to these challenges, demand for counter-drone technology has spiked.
Detecting and/or disabling unmanned aerial systems (UASs) has become a new task for defense organizations.
Every NATO government, and every adversary, has access to some form of UAS platform. As new technologies mature — including AI-powered systems and drone swarms — UASs have the potential to revolutionize modern warfare. The accelerating use of UASs is expected to continue, and Russia’s war on Ukraine has only helped it to gain more momentum. To counter the emerging threats that drones have created, investment in cutting edge CUAS is moving forward, with resources flowing from universities, government funds, and corporate budgets.
The commercialization of drones has become a key driver of Counter-UAS (CUAS) innovation. Key technological advances are lowering the costs of acquiring drones, thereby increasing access. This has led to wider commercial and governmental proliferation, which itself necessitates the development and procurement of CUAS systems in a variety of defense, commercial, and law enforcement roles.
With the constantly rising threats, in multiple theatres, defence experts have been predicting over the past 5 years that investment in CUAS capabilities will accelerate. Drone swarms, along with what’s known as “Manned-Unmanned Teaming”, has been identified as a key feature of multiple next-generation fighter programs. For example, in January 2021, the UK government announced a £30 million contract to design and manufacture a prototype of an unmanned fighter aircraft intended to eventually form part of the Tempest program.
Additionally, Russia has deployed UASs in the conflict in Ukraine, and has reportedly deployed a drone swarm in a military exercise in 2020. China has identified drones, particularly drone swarms, as a key feature of its defense modernization plans as it endeavors to achieve parity with the US. Given this intense focus on the development and advancement of drone technology, it is likely that going forward, the cultivation and procurement of robust CUAS systems, capable of countering a range of UAS threats, will be essential.
Demand for CUAS-related products will be driven by their expanding capabilities in both defense and commercial settings, and the revolutionary potential of drone swarm technology
There will be a significant spending push in drone-related technologies, and this will precipitate investment in corresponding CUAS capabilities.
For the past several years, the attention of the US Federal government has been intensely focused on this problem. “Counter-Unmanned Aircraft System (CUAS) Capability for Battalion-and-Below Operations” (https://doi.org/10.17226/24747) was published by the Washington, DC-based US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NAS) in 2018. The study was conducted at the request of the US Army Research Office to assess the CUAS capability for battalion-and-below. As summarized in the abbreviated version of the study’s “Restricted Report”, the U.S. Army determined that a “confluence of multiple developments” was contributing to an emerging major threat from small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS), particularly to dismounted infantry and lightly armoured vehicles.
It’s worth noting a few of the study’s core insights:
— The worldwide availability of relatively inexpensive and significantly advanced sUASs, especially small hobby aircraft, has created opportunities for potential adversaries to easily acquire sUASs with impressive and rapidly growing capabilities. — Readily available, high-performance sUAS pose a significant potential threat to U.S. forces as lethal weapon systems (carrying conventional or unconventional payloads); reconnaissance, surveillance, and target acquisition systems; and electronic warfare systems. — The space, weight, and power (SWaP) needs for most developed or developing CUAS systems make them more appropriate for use on medium and heavy vehicle platforms, or for static emplacement in the defense of fixed sites. Almost none of the current CUAS systems fit within the available SWaP of a dismounted infantry unit. Without low SWaP CUAS systems, dismounted infantry and lightly armored vehicles are vulnerable to threat sUASs and will remain so for the near term. As the NAS study noted, “adding to the problem is the fact that dedicated air defense units for brigade combat teams were withdrawn from the Army inventory in the 2000s after a determination was made that no significant air threat existed to maneuver battalions and lower-echelon units due to the demise of the Soviet Union”.
In addressing this task, the NAS determined that the U.S. Army’s timeframes of near-term (today-2025, the Current Force), mid-term (2026-2035, the Interim Force), and far-term (2036-2050, the Future Force) are inadequate to address the threat. The U.S. Army’s force capability timeframe is too drawn out to address the rapid advancements in sUAS performance capabilities and anticipated threat uses. This is because potential adversaries are improving their sUAS capabilities on commercial and consumer developmental timelines.
In recognizing the threat back in 2019, the US Department of Homeland Security published “Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems Technology Guide”: https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/c-uas-tech-guide_final_28feb2020.pdf
In January of 2021 the U.S. Department of Defense published its “Counter-Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems Strategy” (https://media.defense.gov/2021/Jan/07/2002561080/-1/-1/1/DEPARTMENT-OF-DEFENSE-COUNTER-SMALL-UNMANNED-AIRCRAFT-SYSTEMS-STRATEGY.PDF) to assess the challenges and threats posed by sUAS. The report was released while Christopher C. Miller was serving as Acting Secretary of Defense. The very first page of the report stated one part of the problem facing warfighters:
The exponential growth of sUAS creates new risks for the DoD. Technology trends are dramatically transforming legitimate applications of sUAS while simultaneously making them increasingly capable weapons in the hands of state actors, non-state actors, and criminals. Small UAS may also pose hazards to DoD operations in the air, land, and maritime domains when controlled by negligent or reckless operators. The Department must protect and defend personnel, facilities, and assets in an environment where increasing numbers of sUAS will share the skies with DoD aircraft, operate in the airspace over DoD installations, and be employed by our Nation’s adversaries.
The rising application of drones in several end use industries including military & defense and event industry is the major factor estimated to bolster the growth of the global UAV drone market over the forecast period. In addition, the implementation of the AI technology in the drone system for various operational uses in numerous end-use industries is another factor projected to accelerate the global market growth by 2027. However, the rules & regulations by various governments across the globe related to air traffic management and flying drones in public areas is expected to hamper the market growth in the coming years.
One recent research report analyses the global UAV drone market and concludes the following: •The fixed-wing sub-segment is expected to rise at a CAGR of 19.7% and dominate the global industry throughout the forecast period. The dominance of this segment is mainly due to the increasing usage of fixed-wing drones as they are the most common and have the capability to fly for longer hours as compared to other drones. • The military and defence segment was valued for $13,275.3 million in 2019 – and is predicted to account for the highest market share in terms of revenue in the projected period. This rapid growth can be majorly due to the rising usage of drones in military & defense sector to perform various operations across the borderlines. • The consumer segment accounted for $3,377.1 million in 2019 – and is projected to grow at the highest rate during the forecast period. This significant growth is mainly owing to rising adoption of drones by consumers and government bodies for various uses, such as to ensure people are following the rules & regulations, etc. • The North America market for UAV drone is projected to see a CAGR of 17.5% by 2027. Such expansion in this region is mainly driven by the growing adoption of drones in the commercial sector for several operational uses, such as sending out or delivering products to the consumers at their respective regions.